It was in this backdrop of moves and counter moves that Rajapakse met Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe yesterday morning at 10 a.m. at Temple Trees.

The accommodation of rebel UNPs by Rajapakse would result in the complete breakdown of the October MoU primarily designed to replace the existing culture of confrontational politics with politics of active cooperation on national issues.

The likely abrogation of the agreement, operable for a period of two years, in only three months, would almost certainly spell disaster for the peace process and shatter the President’s dreams of a southern consensus on the ethnic issue.

Last Week Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe discussed the possible breakdown of the MoU with his party seniors after his return to the country from a trip to South Africa, citing article 10 of the MoU where both parties agreed to a high level committee headed by the President and himself to resolve any possible disagreement over the implementation of the MoU.

These issues in fact were discussed between the two leaders at their meeting yesterday with Wickremesinghe clearly spelling out the fate of the MoU between the two parties if the crossers-over were accommodated.

The discussion had been frank and no holds barred but not acrimonious, with the President too explaining the problems he faced and questions of trust that arose. The President had also spoken sympathetically of Karu Jayasuriya being deprived of the deputy leader’s post and the possibility of averting the cross-over drama if that issue was resolved.

Finally the duo after a lengthy discussion on the specific provisions of the MoU and the right of each party to deal with issues of discipline without interference, decided to meet again soon to sort out the issues of concern to both parties after consulting their respective members.

That would necessarily mean the cross-overs would have to be put on hold until such time, unless of course the President changes his mind.

After the meeting Wickremesinghe left for Dambadeniya on a previously organised programme and the next meeting will have to await his return.

Meanwhile, the fate of the MoU has been the cause of deep concern to the international community as well with even US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reportedly writing to Rajapakse December 18, urging him to seek a negotiated settlement.

For Rajapakse, his problems are not just internal in this confusing political scenario that now prevails. With the devastating Rock report on child recruitment and human rights violations due to be presented to the UN Security Council in February and the European Union Human Rights Resolution on Sri Lanka being put forward at the Human Rights Council in Geneva in March, Rajapakse’s short-sighted and insular political moves will have far-reaching consequences of a national and international nature.

Be that as it may, with sanity temporarily returning to her throne at least in some quarters, even the UNP dissidents were found to be fighting among themselves for key positions.

With Prof. G.L. Peiris, Karu Jayasuriya, Milinda Moragoda and perhaps P. Dayaratne sharing the plum appointments amongst themselves, other dissidents were left with the political crumbs and seemed none too happy by the turn of events Monday night after a meeting at Temple Trees where their respective portfolios were discussed. Moragoda being overseas was not present at the discussion and had told confidants he has not taken a final decision as yet.

The UNP foursome however could not afford to lose the numbers in the rebel group which of course was the basis on which Rajapakse would take them in order to bolster his own support in parliament.

For the dissidents many consequences loom ahead.

1. They will have to face any general election on the SLFP ticket, which will prove difficult for them and would probably result in them not being re-elected.

2. Public support in this country at a general election is policy and party driven and does not usually take too much into account the individual. In any event such parliamentarians as Prof. G.L. Peiris and Dharmadasa Banda even under the UNP have never won an election in their constituencies even in 2001 when the UNP won the general election.

3. The power and influence wielded by the cabinet ministries the dissidents are given would depend on the richness of the portfolio. Merely being a cabinet minister by name will not carry any power unless the choicest of subjects and departments are listed under that ministry.

4. Furthermore the departments and institutions coming under these ministries will still be headed and manned by the political appointees of UPFA ministers who will not be asked to step down to accommodate the appointees of the UNP dissidents.

5. Are the new ministers to sack all these UPFA appointees without having to face a backlash? Will they remain loyal to the former UPFA minister? How will the new UNP minister then distribute favours to his own loyalists and constituents? Distasteful though it sounds, politics in Sri Lanka revolves around patronage. How then will these ministers nurse their constituencies and for which party? After all the SLFP already has organisers in those very electorates the UNP rebel MPs represent.

6. It is unlikely there will be any goodwill generated among the chairmen and boards of the departments under the UNP dissidents’ ministries in order for them to carry out their duties smoothly, especially since these chairmen and boards were appointed by the former ministers.

For the government, the dilemma would be much the same. If hundreds of political appointees were to be removed by the new incoming UNP ministers, there would be a wave of discontent that would build up against the Rajapakse regime.

For the President, who except in his own mind has become extremely unpopular within a short space of one year due to the economic doldrums into which this country has been plunged, any more bad publicity would prove fatal to his healthy political survival.

Already the dissatisfied rumblings within the SLFP are getting louder with cabinet ministers even resorting to making threatening phone calls to the UNP dissidents requesting them not to look greedily at their ministries. Deputy Justice Minister Dilan Perera even told a public forum that the situation has become one of confusion and it may be the last speech he would make as a deputy minister given the imminent cabinet reshuffle to take place soon.

Already the turmoil in Rajapakse’s own camp and the anger of SLFP members who feel cheated of their right to ministries given that it was they who worked to bring the government and the President in to power, and the propitious landing in Sri Lanka of former President Kumaratunga has made, even the usually rambunctious and impulsive Rajapakse take a step back from the situation.

It was in this backdrop that would be UNP dissident Mahinda Wijesekera met Karu Jayasuriya Monday afternoon at 3 p.m. and expressed his concerns and even pitched into the Karu Jaysuriya group with regard to the real motives behind their cross-over. He told Jayasuriya he would not be crossing over to the government and to count him out.

Following this meeting Wijesekera was to meet Ranil Wickremesinghe at his office and assure the Opposition Leader he would not leave the party. He also discussed his own problems with the party and Wickremesinghe promised to look into these matters and address them speedily.

If the party seniors were now rethinking their decision to crossover, the young buck Navin Dissanayake was busy making phone calls ironically purporting to distribute portfolios to other UNP members on behalf of President Rajapakse.

In an attempt to swell the numbers of the rebel group in order to cater to government parliamentary needs, last week he called Earl Gunasekera and urged him to join the dissident group promising Gunasekera a non-cabinet portfolio. Gunasekera immediately informed party seniors that Navin Dissanayake was firing calls trying to recruit UNP members on the promise of government perks and advised them to watch the situation.

What was more alarming perhaps for SLFP stalwarts watching the cross-over scenario unfold was the fact that Karu Jayasuriya was negotiating for the prime ministerial post. The rebel thinking was that Jayasuriya would lose face if he crossed over and accepted a mere ministerial post having already been power minister of this country and Wickremesinghe’s prime minister designate.

For the SLFP, Karu Jayasuriya being made prime minister would mutate their line of succession to the presidency in case, God forbid, anything untoward were to happen to President Rajapakse.

Meanwhile UNP Ampara District MP P. Dayaratne sent a message to the UNP Leader that he would not leave the party if Karu Jayasuriya was restored in his position as the deputy leader of the UNP.

It was to iron out such problems then that 11 members of the dissident group including Karu Jayasuriya and Prof. G.L. Peiris met President Rajapakse at Temple Trees Monday (15) evening.

However even before the meeting took place between the President and the dissidents, Rajapakse was already having misgivings on the cross-over move given the political ramifications of such actions.

In a face-saving move, Rajapakse was to therefore send word that he would not be inclined to take any crossers-over from the UNP if they were restored to their usual positions in the UNP and Karu Jayasuriya re-appointed as deputy leader of the party.

Rajapakse’s thinking it is reliably learnt is that since Jayasuriya and his group had come forward to help him to bolster his flagging support in parliament he could not readily eschew their advances and their marriage proposals.

However, knowing well the colossal political problems he would face both within his own party and the diplomatic community, who have consistently urged him to work with the UNP on the basis of the MoU, Rajapakse was now finding a way out to halt the migration.

Rajapakse was also well aware that 16 members from the UNP today would mean nothing if 20 members from the SLFP disgruntled with the leadership due to various reasons including the encroachment into their turf by the UNP dissidents were to cross-over to UNP ranks, if not today then at a later date even six months down the road.

Meanwhile, separately the government has been holding talks with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) to garner their support. On Monday morning SLMC Leader Rauf Hakeem met with the party high command and decided to join the government and extend its support to Rajapakse subject to a MoU to be signed between the SLMC and the government.

The SLMC also decided they would for the purposes of a smooth transition tone down the demands in the MoU and confine the agreement to the ideological realm while setting down certain policy issues including devolution of power in the Muslim areas, autonomous arrangements, Muslim representation at the peace talks and provision for a separate Muslim majority unit in the east.

Such a unit forming a separate provincial council inclusive of Kalmunai, Akkaraipattu and Samanthurai where the Muslims would constitute an estimated 58 percent majority has been the dream of the SLMC even during its halcyon days under M.H.M. Ashraff. Even though no special mention was made of such a unit, the policies set out in the MoU supported such aspirations.

Be that as it may, Hakeem not wanting to be viewed in the same light as the UNP rebels studiously left out any demands for positions in the MoU.

Following this decision by the SLMC high command representatives of the SLMC met representatives of the government Monday evening to discuss the draft MoU with Presidential Advisor Basil Rajapakse instructing the government team to agree to all the conditions, knowing fully well the fate of the earlier MoUs and their viability when it came to implementation.

Present on behalf of the government were Vishwa Warnapala, Media Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa and Local Government Minister Janaka Bandara Tennakoon. The SLMC was represented by Bashir Segu Dawood, M.Baiz, Nizam Kariyappar and M.L.M. Hisbullah.

Rajapakse is now faced with another MoU, which will surely clash with the MoUs he already signed with the likes of the JVP and the JHU. Both extremist parties, particularly the JVP, have been vociferous in their condemnation of Rajapakse and his back sliding ways.

The Marxist JVP that claims to have brought Rajapakse to the throne on a hard-line platform of incessant war and insular economic policy have now called his government the worst even since independence.

JVP front-liner Anura Kumara Dissanayake reportedly told media Saturday (13) the party had worked hard to help Rajapakse win the 2005 presidential election but he has blatantly violated many of the clauses in the 12-point pre election agreement signed between him and the JVP.

Lambasting the President for attempts to take UNP dissidents Dissanayake said many of the UNP crossers-over had openly advocated federalism and roundly condemned Rajapakse and his Mahinda Chinthana. Dissanayake said that taking these federalists into government violates the MoU signed with the JVP.

JVP Propaganda Secretary and General Secretary, Patriotic National Movement, Wimal Weerawansa too entered the fray Monday (15) and vowed to topple the government accusing Rajapakse of taking in crossers-over who have openly advocated federalism in the past.

Addressing a press conference, Weerawansa told media that with separatist and federal elements in the UNP joining the government Rajapakse would go against the mandate given to him by the people.

It was in fact the likes of Prof G.L. Peiris and Milinda Moragoda who fathered the Oslo Communiqué, which deals with federalism and it is they the JVP were targeting.

Ironically it was Peiris who was the chief government spokesperson during the six rounds of talks during the UNP government and justified all actions taken in furtherance of the peace process.

Meanwhile both Wimal Weerawansa and Anura Dissanayake reportedly told a web based daily newspaper, the Asian Tribune, Tuesday, the crossing-over of UNP MPs is not a big deal, and stated that if the government would strengthen its majority in parliament with these UNPers, the desired objective of the government would not be realised as the cross-over is against the people’s mandate.

Weerawansa also pointed out there would not be a major benefit to the government by getting these dissidents into the party. He reportedly said, "The team that joins the government including Prof. G.L. Peiris and Rajitha Senaratne are not considered as heavy weights within the UNP."

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, accusing the government for violating the agreement signed with the party in 2005, reportedly told the Asian Tribune that it was sad to hear that those UNPers who heavily criticised President Rajapakse and even the Mahinda Chinthana are in the list of dissidents who are crossing over, purely because of their quest for power.

Meanwhile, even as pandemonium breaks lose in the political arena, aerial bombardments and heavy artillery attacks continue in the north and east, affecting the lives of forgotten civilians everyday. While pugnacious nationalism and political avarice have gripped our nation’s politicians, the economy has hit ground zero and the populace continues to suffer at the hands of an astronomical cost of living.

For the UNP dissidents, even the purported rationale for crossing over has completely disappeared. If the purpose was to infuse the hawkish elements in government with a more dignified approach of negotiation and resolution then Prof G.L. Peiris, the father of federalism in Sri Lanka, telling a Hindu journalist that Sri Lanka must pursue a military response to terrorism, defeats this purpose.

Neither will any of the UNP policies gel with those of the Mahinda Chinthana with its insular economic policy, its backward educational policies and its hard-line militarised approach to the ethnic conflict.

If the UNP dissidents are to make a difference they would have to negotiate a restatement of the Mahinda Chinthana to accommodate the UNP’s more forward looking policies of governance. However the JVP has already vowed to work towards the destruction of Rajapakse’s government if he were to move away from his hard-line platform of 2005.

Even if Rajapakse got the numbers from the UNP dissidents so that JVP rhetoric or support would be irrelevant in parliament, he would still lose public support crucial in an election.

In the alternative, is Rajapakse suddenly going to abandon the Chinthana and reform his policies to fall in line with more moderate thinking? These are unlikely scenarios and as far as the UNP dissidents are concerned their only conviction for crossing over would be the realisation of their own selfish agendas and a disgusting impatience for government perks.

It would have been more dignified and honourable to have stayed on in opposition and strengthened their resolve to solve the several pressing issues facing this nation today.